Egg prices are on the rise again as a persistent outbreak of bird flu coincides with heightened demand for holiday baking. However, prices are still well below the record highs experienced nearly two years ago.
The latest surge in egg prices comes as the American Egg Board reports isolated, temporary egg shortages in grocery stores. Emily Metz, the Board’s CEO, reassured consumers that these shortages are typically resolved quickly, often within a day.
In October, the average price of a dozen eggs in U.S. cities was $3.37, a slight decrease from September but still a notable 63% increase from the previous year, when eggs cost just $2.07. Prices peaked in January 2023 at $4.82 per dozen. Metz explained that the highest demand for eggs occurs in November and December, as consumers prepare for holiday baking, including favorites like pumpkin pie and stuffing.
The ongoing bird flu outbreak, which began in early 2022, is a key driver of rising egg prices. Over 111 million birds, primarily egg-laying hens, have been culled to control the spread of the virus. In the past month alone, more than 6 million birds have been slaughtered, though this has had a relatively minor impact on the total U.S. egg-laying flock, which numbers around 377 million. Nevertheless, the flock is down about 3% from the previous year, contributing to a 4% decrease in egg production, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
California has been hit particularly hard by bird flu, disrupting supplies of cage-free eggs. The state, along with Nevada, Washington, and Oregon, requires that only cage-free eggs be sold. Metz noted that to meet demand in these regions, eggs are being sourced from other parts of the country. Next year, states like Arizona, Colorado, and Michigan will also implement cage-free egg requirements, with Rhode Island and Utah following suit by 2030.
Chad Hart, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University, pointed out that the rise in demand for specialty eggs may also contribute to the spread of bird flu. The virus is transmitted through wild bird droppings, and allowing chickens to roam freely increases the risk of exposure. “It’s really hard to control that interaction between domesticated birds and wild birds,” Hart explained. Furthermore, climate change and extreme weather patterns, including hurricanes and wildfires, are pushing wild birds into new areas, complicating efforts to contain the disease.
While rebuilding the egg-laying flock is underway, Hart noted that this process can take time and further strain supply. Farmers must hold back some eggs to hatch new chickens, which temporarily reduces the available supply.
On a more positive note, the price of chicken feed, which accounts for 70% of a farmer’s costs, has decreased significantly after soaring between 2020 and 2022. This could provide some relief to the poultry industry as it works to stabilize egg prices.
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